Wither the Arab Spring?

Wither the Arab Spring?

 The Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt has declared victory in the elections held in the Arab world’s most populous nation.  This ‘victory’ is contested by the praetorian elite of Egypt: the army. It is thus unclear whether the Brotherhood will be allowed to form a government. The army may step in and given the remit that the army has arrogated to itself, it may seize power and render the elections null and void. The international community or the United States continues to be a mute spectator to rumblings in both Egypt and the Arab Muslim world.

Meanwhile, the butcher of Syria, Bashar Al Assad, with the help of the Russians is busy murdering his own people. All in all, then the much touted Arab Spring appears to be losing its steam and the Arab Muslim world , if not reverting but kind of settling down on a political course that still smacks of authoritarianism and praetorianism. Many in the international community appear to be, by omission supporting this state of affairs. The much touted ‘Yemeni Solution’ to the Syrian morass or not stepping in to prevent the takeover by the army in Egypt are examples of this. The former is a compromise solution wherein Bashar leaves the scene but the nature of the Syrian state remains the same. And the latter brings member of the old regime back to power in a different permutation and combination. So in some senses, it is back to square one with the deep state in the Arab Muslim world unscathed. The question is what should be done to, one,, maintain the impetus of the Arab Spring and , second, bring to fruition the potential it holds?

First, a word on the nature and implications of the Arab Spring. The phenomenon-an unusual and unprecedented one- held out the promise of the efflorescence and crystallization of freedom-economic, political and cultural- to the region and peoples that apparently had resisted this. This naturally entailed a revolution of sorts given that both the Arab Muslim state and society were structured and nurtured on the negation of freedom. Specifically, it meant the potential end of theArab authoritarian state and alignment of people’s aspirations and will with that of the state. Or more accurately democracy and democratization of the region. Given that the majority of the peoples constituting the Arab world were Muslims, this naturally meant that the ‘new’ Arab state would be Islamic. This is where the United States faltered and floundered. That is to say, it with held its support or its support was tepid to the Arab Spring. The sole superpower feared that supporting the Arab Spring would mean supporting the Islamists who apparently were at the forefront of the revolution. And that if it was the Islamists who came to power in the Arab world, this would crystallize a ‘clash of civilizations’ and throw a spanner into the existing equations of alliances, peace within and without. The question then is was/is the United State’s fear germane? And what should its approach and strategy be toward the dying embers of the Arab Spring?

Indubitably, the United States was/is spot on over the real implications of the Arab Spring. It does amount toa transfer of power from the Arab autocrats and authoritarians. And this could potentially throw the region and its relations with the world into a tizzy. But is the hands off and a wait and watch approach prudent? The answer is a big NO.  Why?

The Arab Spring is that one off, significant and momentous event that is of profound historical import. While the seeds of rebellion have been sown, it is not clear whether it will lead to comprehensive rejigging and reform of the Arab authoritarian and praetorian state. The authoritarian impulse may emerge stronger and crush the incipient movement towards reform-even if it be of the Islamist variety. This assertion does not amount to endorsing and supporting the Islamists.  It is a call for supporting change in the Arab Muslim world. It is the author’s view that articulating Islamism in the idiom of democracy, freedom and rights may be a cynical ploy by the Islamists. However, counter intuitively,  it is in this very fact that the seeds of change can be discerned. That is to say, once stuck on a certain course, the Islamists will have to prove the veracity of their claims and will then be set on a path of change that corresponds to democracy and the principles of liberalism. Even if they retract once in power, it will be well nigh impossible to govern in an idiom and format that corresponds cent percent to the principles of the Shariah. The Islamists will then have to incorporate modern day governance and the political space they will have to operate in will have to correspond to , in the least, a minimalist conception of democracy.

Once in place, this may then have a snowballing effect and the Arab society will refuse to countenance authoritarianism of any sort. Consequently, they will demand voice and say in how they are governed and this will lead to clamor rights. The Islamists will then be answerable to the public and, whether by design or default, correspond to the tenets of democracy. Undoubtedly, there is an element of speculation involved here. And the supporting the choice of people in the case in contention, Egypt, involves risk. This risk is worth taking. The seeds of liberalism and freedom have been laid and planted in the Arab Muslim world. The product of this may well be that golden mean between reason and faith that the Islamic world so badly needs. It would be a travesty if this opportunity is wasted. With drawing support or fence watching the Arab Spring means frittering away a once in lifetime opportunity. It is about time then that the United States steps in and save the Arabs from themselves. Let history be given a shove.