Is Peace between India and Pakistan Inevitable?

India’s foreign minister, S.M Krishna, asserted the other day that peace between India and Pakistan was inevitable. This exuberant statement has been followed by an invitation from Pakistan to the prime minister of India, for a visit to Pakistan later this year. What more can be salubrious for both the subcontinent and perhaps the world than peace between arch enemies and adversaries? The greatest beneficiary could well be Pakistan given that its national energies continue to be dissipated in Sisyphean endeavors, animosity and the attendant hostility against India. Needless to say, India too would be a beneficiary of comprehensive and long lasting peace between the two countries. And importantly, Kashmiris , the people who have perhaps suffered the most on account of the hostility between India and Pakistan would finally heave a sigh of relief and reap the attendant peace dividend.

The question is: is the Indian foreign minister’s remark a case of ‘irrational exuberance? Have not the two countries been there before? What is different this time? And finally what would catalyze real and lasting peace in the subcontinent?

The Indian foreign minister’s remarks can be read as reaching out to Pakistan and making this effort public. Incidentally, this remark and the ‘bonhomie in the offing’ come after President Obama’s clear cut assertion or disavowal of involvement in issues between India and Pakistan. This is all good. However, past history of the so called thaw between India and Pakistan and ‘the ‘breakthroughs’ or a new paradigm of relations have all come to naught. Be it the  Shimla Agreement, the lull between that and the diplomacy initiated after Operation Brass stacks, the various convolutions of the insurgency in Kashmir, the summitry after September 11 that came to known as the Agra Summit, all have, in the final analysis proven to be damp squibs. The status quo prevails till some incident-international or pertaining to the subcontinent-breaks the logjam and the saga of talks over talks begin once again. Is it different this time?

Yes and No. Yes, because Pakistan is in the midst of a structural and existential crisis and has no real leverage over the major sticking point between the two countries: the dispute over Kashmir. Second, the dispute in Kashmir has now transformed into a  conflict in Kashmir with separatism or more accurately the politics of separatism dying a rather natural death. (This does not mean that Kashmiris have accepted India’s sovereign remit over Kashmir and the separatist sentiment has died down). These two factors are the new structural conditions that obtain in Pakistan and Kashmir.

No, because Pakistan, the nation state that deems itself to be incomplete without Kashmir and sees incorporation of Kashmir into its sovereign remit as the ‘unfinished business of partition’ continues to be wedded to this ideology or formulation. Similarly, despite the patina or ostensible façade of democracy, Pakistan’s power structure comprising of the oligarhical praetorian elite continues to be the real power in Pakistan. These structural factors militate against a genuine détente between India and Pakistan.

Does this mean that the two antagonists will always be locked in perpetual hostility and animosity? And that real peace will never descend or crystallize in the subcontinent and it will always remain on the nuclear threshold?

Not necessarily. What could change the insalubrious and bleak dynamic in the subcontinent is real and lasting change in Pakistan. In this schema, Pakistan’s governing ideology will need to mutate into someth8ng salubrious. The major element and component of this paradigm shift has to be disavowing hostility against India and dropping the Kashmir obsession. This can only come about after a comprehensive review of Pakistan’s power structure and a consensus –both top down and bottoms up-on the nature of the naya(new) Pakistan, and the attendant change in Pakistan’s international orientation. Concomitant to this should be fresh approaches to the confict in Kashmir by powers that be in the Indian power structure. Sterile politics premised on paranoia and meanness, need to give way to fresh, approaches that smell of roses.

Whether Pakistan will change and mutate into a salubrious entity at peace with itself and the world is a billion dollar question. It may change or it may never change. Till this comes to pass, peace overtures between India and Pakistan will be like plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose. And Mr. Krisha’s assertion could then be deemed as a case of irrational exuberance. This is the sad and prosaic reality of the relational dynamic between India and Pakistan. All the statement can elicit is a big yawn and yes, a sigh. Unfortunately.