Thursday, June 4, 2009

Ragda II

Ragda II
The deaths of stone pelting young men(or boys) followed by the alleged gang rape - murder most foul of women at the cusp of their lives- and the violence and counter violence on part of the state apparatus of Jammu and Kashmir is most likely to lead a rerun of Ragda I. Given the eerie parallel, in terms of the prelude to Ragda I, this (rerun) may be referred to as Ragda II. The prelude to Ragda II amid the cacophony of noise and clamor that it has bred among both ‘mainstream’ and separatist politicians raises more questions than it answers. The sets of inferences to drawn are manifold. However the major or main inference or even conclusion that one may draw is the obvious: Kashmir remains unsettled and the dispute over it warrants or merits resolution. This obvious ‘catechism’ is more poignant and salient given the rather spontaneity of the politics of protest- post militarization of the conflict-where the initiative has been taken away from the separatist political leadership and that it is the ‘ordinary’ people who are at the fore front of the protest. The question or sets of questions that arise are: are these protests likely to go in vain? Will the prelude generate a momentum that in the final scheme of things will go awry like the previous one? What role does the separatist leadership play? What could be the potential response of the ‘mainstream’ leadership? Is demilitarization the answer to the problems inherent in a wide and deep troop spread in the valley? Or is it merely a component of the dispute and thus merely a micro phenomenon that coud lbe be obviated once the real issue is resolved? Elaborating on the answer(s) to each of these questions is beyond the scope of this piece. However, the theme that cuts across these sets of questions is, to repeat myself, Kashmir or the dispute over Kashmir aches or cries for a resolution and that the attritive capabilities/capacities of the Indian state have not laid to rest the nature of the dispute over Kashmir. Now the question is what can or what is to be done to both alleviate the potential of Ragda II and simultaneously alleviate to the extent it can be , the dispute over Kashmir.(The answer is necessarily both normative as well as descriptive…).First, let us explore the context. That is, the structural problems and the concomitant identity crisis that Pakistan, the country that deems itself to be party to the dispute, has gotten into. It is increasingly obvious that this neighboring country has gotten into such a morass that it can no longer follow up on the dispute over Kashmir with the vigor it used and as far as the eye can see it may drop its claim on Kashmir and focus on its internal problems. Second, even a cursory examination of the politics of the sole superpower, the United States suggests that it’s interest in the resolution of the dispute over Kashmir is a far cry from the principle of self determination of peoples and is more related to its domestic politics and homeland security.(This further reduces the scope of Pakistan’s claim over Kashmir given that Pakistan is now in the ‘ eye of the storm’, so to speak).Third and perhaps more important is the increase in the prestige and power of India .It(India) is increasingly headed to great power status and is gradually becoming or morphing into a custodian of the international system and structure. Fourth, the international system is so clogged and , to use a strong word, clogged that it may not bear the creation of new states.(The process of decolonization that , in some senses, generated failed states is another worry and a burden that the international system is loath to bear again. This I am sure must be a factor in the superpower calculus of decision making..). So where does this leave the dispute over Kashmir and the concomitant politics of protest where the separatist leadership has lost the initiative and appears to be taking its cues from the protests itself? As is implied in the preceding discussion, maximalist claims are more likely to lead to a situation which begets an impasse (or a dead end) and the energy of the prelude to Ragda II would stand dissipated. This calls for introspection on part of all parties involved and calls for the solution that is non zero sum or in other words a win win situation. The obvious solution that strikes the mind is a kind of solution that calls for creativity and expansiveness on the relevant parties. Or in other words work toward a solution that allows all parties to converge on a solution that allows all parties an exit that is honorable and ultimately which leads to a lasting solution to the dispute.The obvious solution or more specifically the contours of the solution may be to ask for Greater Autonomy for the state.This as far as the eye can see may be the most optimal solution given the complexities of ths dispute and the arguments elaborated in the piece. This (solution) may be palatable to all parties given the context while the others may mean mere posturing or , to use a metaphor, tilting against the windmills. Panning of this solution may also mean or entail obviating the problems and issues that have arisen out of the catalysts that have spurred the current protest: death , rapine and murder. So let us make haste slowly and work with due diligence and sincerity toward ends that are attainable.