How Aid Programs to Afghanistan Can be made more Effective?

A donor’s conference held in Tokyo has pledged 16 billion dollars for the development of Afghanistan. Japan- true to its cheque book diplomacy- which co chaired the conference is going to provide 3 billion dollars of the total aid monies. The aim apparently is to develop a vibrant economy in Afghanistan that may ultimately help in improving the security situation there. The context is the planned exit of western countries led by the United States. Plagued by both top down and bottoms up or pervasive corruption, both the spending and disbursal of aid monies till now has been plagued by inefficiencies. While donor nations have insisted upon ‘cleaning Afghanistan’s house, this is really beside the point.  The real issue or question is the security, political and economic context of Afghanistan. All are interrelated. The question that should be nagging the minds of both the donors and the United States is how the country can be nursed to health.

Essentially a failed state that after September II morphed into a western protectorate, Afghanistan has historically been the play ground of either empires or geo political and geo strategic competition/rivalry. This condition has led to weak nationalism, poor or underdeveloped state structures and the attendant lack of governance. Overlaying this has been the security and strategic interests of its neighboring countries which deemed meddling in Afghanistan’s politics as a bit of a prerogative. Pakistan’s strategic depth formulation immediately springs to mind here. This led to the crystallization and formation of the Taliban movement which acted as a host to the Al Qaeda.

Supporting the Taliban entailed playing the ethnic mosaic of Afghanistan against one another and ensuring that the balance of power of social and political forces remained divided and propping up some factions that favored Pakistan. This clientism along with a short term focus by the United States vis a vis Afghanistan led to chronic instability and led to the further dissipation of Afghan state and society. The result was anarchy and a void that was filled by forces inimical to stability, peace and progress. Afghanistan then morphed into a sanctuary for global jihad. The interest in Afghanistan after September II somewhat changed the dynamic and the equations and with continued western support, the ever so slight possibility of Afghanistan veering to normalcy became a possibility. This, however, now stands imperiled, Post western exit from Afghanistan, there is a clear and present danger that the country may once again slide into civil war and regress-economically, politically and socially. The question is what can be done to prevent this?

Continued western interest and presence in Afghanistan is the answer. This has to be buttressed by ensuring that Pakistan does not meddle again in the country. Pakistan should and has to drop its strategic depth formulation and not be paranoid about Indian intentions in Afghanistan. This approach then needs to be followed by instituting a political process that ensures a balance of power among Afghanistan’s various ethnic groups. A representative government that reflects the Afghan mosaic should be the aim of this social engineering.

Concomitantly, a vigorous  economic program that leads to broad based,  equitable and sustainable economic growth needs to be instituted and implemented. This would naturally involve creating durable and vibrant state institutions and property rights that allow for an enabling environment for the economy and markets. In other words, a structure that allows for a balance between the markets and the state has to be instituted. This needs to be complemented by a frenzied attempt to build Afghanistan’s human and social capital. Specifically, this means building schools, universities and colleges that absorb Afghanistan’s youth bulge. Employment outlets for this trained and educated youth bulge could be created by helping Afghanistan develop trading relations with the world. This then would hopefully lead to an outward looking, vibrant Afghanistan instead of the inward looking, insular one.

A concerted effort that incorporates these dimensions could potentially lead to a new entity-at peace with itself and the world. Security, development and political stability and peace are all interlinked. Focusing on one at the exclusion of the others is a recipe for disaster. What Afghanistan needs is a holistic, integrated approach that incorporates all these dimensions. Till then, the monies doled out to Afghanistan will go down into holes and sinks. It is about time then that the entire paradigm that shapes policies towards Afghanistan be rejigged and reshaped. Let the prescriptions adumbrated upon here be taken to heart and implement with vigor. World and regional peace may come to depend upon it