The Eclipse of the Indian National Congress and its Implications for India

The dismal electoral performance of the Congress party-once an indomitable force in Indian politics- in the Hindu heartland and other states points out towards an ineluctable trend in the political firmament of India: regionalization of politics and the hold of regional political parties over India’s politics. This trend has many implications at a range of levels- political, economic, governmental, governance and the nature of politicking in India. Potentially and cumulatively, it could either portend broader political instability, governance and policy paralysis at the Centre.

This naturally and inevitably bodes ill for India’s national interest and democracy as aggregation of interests by a plethora of political parties would lead to stresses and strains that the political system may not bear. The need of the hour perhaps is introspection by the Indian political class and the powers that be in the power structure of India to review, course correct and introspect over the nature of India’s political, federal and party structure. This is made exigent by the reasons delineated here.

All is not gloom and doom here. The disaggregation of the Indian political and party structure may also reflect the fact that Indian secularism is rather robust. And that the ‘creeping Hindutvization’ of the polity stands negated given that the Indian electorate save in some pockets has rejected the politics of Hindutva and has instead opted for parties that are either populist or have local and in some cases parochial interests on the agenda. As such, in a curious twist, the Idea of India stands validated.

What the elections may also reflect is a structural trend: the eclipse or in a more prosaic formulation the diminishing of the Congress party as a significant force in Indian politics. The party , once held to be synonymous with the power structure of India , so much so that India almost came to be recognized as a one party democracy, has indubitably lost momentum and its hold on Indian politics. This accrues from a set of reasons, the most salient of which may be the rise of regional political parties with local and localized agenda’s, the nature of Centre State relations in India and the disconnect of the Congress party from both Bharat, that is, the rural India and the aspirations of modern India.

This disconnect along with a party apparatus and structure that favored patronage over policy, cronyism, favoritism , lack of intra party democracy , ossification of the structure of leadership at a range of levels spawning a critical mass of yes men may constitute the real reasons for the party’s decline. Add to this taking for granted the Muslim vote and indulging in vote bank politics wherein Muslims felt used and abused, the decline is not only inevitable but also obvious to note. This is, in some senses, a travesty given that the Congress party was the torchbearer of Indian secularism, surely its vanguard and the upholder of the Idea of India. Moreover, its dominance of Indian politics ensured a reasonably less obstructionist governance process.

This trend is structural and more likely than not is unlikely to be reversed. The Congress party will probably never regain its luster and dominance of Indian politics. It may have to contend in an increasingly cluttered and chaotic structure or scene as one of the parties with some vote share of the Indian electorate. However, what the party could do, in the future is to course correct and review its assumptions about the Indian electorate in an attempt to gain mindshare of those who constitute the Indian electorate. This may allow it to regain momentum and reconnect, de nouveau, to both India’s.

What should be alarming and disconcerting to those forming the Indian political class and powers that be in India is the disaggregation of the political and party political structure of India. That is, an increasingly fragmented polity with regional parties having localized agenda’s most of the vote share of the Indian electorate. This would naturally and inevitably impact India’s governance, Centre State relations, India’s federalism and lead to policy paralysis perhaps both at the Centre and the State. These regional parties could hold the Centre at ransom and parliamentary democracy may be impacted negatively. As such, it becomes exigent to review and introspect on part of the Indian political class.

This class could attempt to revamp nature of power and wielding power in India and gradually and but inexorably work and direct India’s political system towards a presidential system. The French model may be germane for India and India could look towards France and other countries with a presidential system in place for pointers. Even the US model may be germane. This is naturally a long term process. However, given the drift in Indian politics, considering this option may be desirable. A powerful president curtailed and checked by balances could potentially restore equilibrium to Indian politics and set India onto a salubrious trajectory wherein the policy formation and process could be set free. Even intractable problems like Kashmir may be accorded some closure. The need of the hour therefore is to introspect and review and then gradually work towards a solution that overcomes the policy and political gridlock accruing from fragmentation of the political and party political scene. It is none other than the Idea of India that needs this.