Middle East Blues: Will the Assassination of Israeli Diplomats Lead to War in the Middle East?

Israel has blamed Iran for the attack on the Israeli diplomat’s car in New Delhi. There may be merit to this accusation given that Iran has accused Israel for orchestrating attacks and assassinating its nuclear scientists. Iran may be attempting to pay in kind or return the favor to Israel. In this tit for tat game of needling each other, neither country smells of roses. And more importantly, the assassinations, redolent of the Cold war era, do not appear to serve any purpose.

If Iran is building or has built a nuclear program clandestinely, it stretches reason to believe that it would not have a tiered ring of scientists working on the project. Assassinating an odd nuclear scientist would not throw a spanner or roll back Iran’s nuclear program. Similarly, Iran’s alleged attempts to assassinate Israel’s official’s amount to mere riling or needling Israel. However, portentously, this series of tit for tat assassinations (or assassination attempts) reflects a failure of diplomacy and more ominously could be a prelude to war between Israel and Iran.

This scenario and possibility would throw the entire Middle East, Afghanistan and even the Arab Spring into disarray and pour cold water over the gains made in the Middle East over the past few years. The first casualty would, naturally, be overall peace in the region and war between Israel and Iran even if Israel opts for a limited strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Iran will likely retaliate with both its armed forces and its proxies like Hezbollah. This full fledged escalation and confrontation will render the Middle East into a battle ground and is likely to draw in the United States into the confrontation as well. The costs in civilian lives lost, men and material would be immense and a new dark age would dawn in the Middle East. This naturally would have implications on the Arab Spring and it would be nipped in the bud as regimes in the Middle East would divert the attention of the masses and rally them around war preparations.

The rather inevitable entry of the United States into the war besides causing a stir in American domestic politics would have far reaching implications. An Israeli strike on Iran or its nuclear infrastructure, would not, come into play without the blessings of the United States and it stands to reason that the US would throw its weight around Israel in the event of a confrontation. This would validate the stereotype of the US-Israeli alliance as the ‘Zionist-Crusader neo imperialist alliance’ bent on thwarting and stifling the Arab Muslim Middle East. Concomitantly, anti Americanism, already rife in the Islamic world, would run amok. Al –Qaeda-an organization or a network on the run-, may be given a new lease of life and international terrorism may , de noueveau, may make a comeback and leave an imprimatur on international relations and politics.

The moribund peace process between the Israeli’s and the Palestinians will die and there will be breaches in Israel’s security. This will have a long lasting impact and even the half hearted attempts at peacemaking will or may never fructify in the future.

Another casualty would be the fragile peace in Iraq where the skewed power sharing arrangements favor the Shi’ites and given the linkages between the Iranian and Iraqi clergy, problems of a structural nature may arise. These would throw the post exit American plans and the international community into a tizzy. Iraq may favor or take sides with Iran and create problems for the United States. This may even impact the exit plans from Afghanistan which, in turn, could potentially impact the politics, orientation and approach of Pakistan and concomitantly the calculations of the Taliban.

All in all, the potential confrontation would throw international politics into a tizzy and the gravamen of world politics would be turned upside down. This alarming state of affairs then needs to be nipped in the bud. The nagging and all important question is:how?

There are no easy answers to this and the best of minds have grappled with this question with no success. Pretending to know the answer and posit a definitive framework that obviates the need for war in the region would amount is a non starter. The region and its politics are too complex for such an exercise. However, common sense and prudence dictates that while the nuclear question may be a difficult one, the prospects of war and confrontation can be obviated. This becomes exigent for the reasons delineated in this piece. So what does a common sense approach tell us?

Again, the role of the United States becomes important here. It is time that the US takes a serious view of the situation. First, it should lean upon Israel and ask it to exercise restraint. This should be followed by making re –entry into the politics of the Middle East, assess the situation and then vigorously employ astute diplomacy as a means to an end. The end in contention here is to stop war. Period. It could re start negotiations with Iran and attempt to talk Iran out of building the bomb. Perhaps, the quid pro quo that the US could offer Iran is the prospect of some sort of regional hegemony where Iran’s aspirations could be sated without Iran being the regional bully and throwing the nature and form of alliances in the region into disarray. Another carrot that the US could offer Iran is/are security guarantees and underscore to Iran that its sovereignty woul be respected in any case if it gives up the nuclear program.

In sum and in essence, the need of the hour is astute diplomacy. The US can dig deep into its resources and can potentially come up with a diplomatic formula that obviates the drift into war. It is time that it does so. Millions of lives and world peace is at stake and it is, to repeat, none other than the United States that can thwart this gory outcome.