McDonaldsand Peace: The Golden Arches Theory of Peace;
A couple of days ago, I was having dinner at the KC Residency hotel’s revolving restaurant in Jammu. As the revolving restaurant spun around, my eye caught the neon sign logo of the fast food chain, McDonalds. The golden arches of McDonalds gleamed and cast an eerie glow on the roof top of the building on which it was nested. I took a stroll down the memory lane and thought of Australia where I went almost a decade and a half ago as a student. Australia was, at that point in time, going through ferment. Its traditional assumptions about the state, nation , society and the economy were being integrated with the new and the novel. Anyway, this is beside the point here. My thought process went back in time and the controversial but highly astute New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman came to my mind. More accurately, a certain thesis that he propounded in his award winning book,’ The Lexus and the Olive Tree’ came to my mind.
Friedman had , in his book- an ode to globalization- posited and observed that no two dyads of countries or pairs of countries he had visited had gone to war if they had a McDonald’s chain operating in their territories. He did not mean to assert that there was a correlation between war,peace and McDonalds per se. The point was profound. Friedman meant that if a country had McDonalds in its territory, it meant and implied that the country was enmeshed in the sinews of globalization, trade and commerce. And because this redounded positively to the country or countries in contention, it was against the national interest of the country to disturb this and opt for conflict and war. This assertion or theory was the modern day rendition of a theory or thesis propounded by Norman Angell’s years ago. Angell’s theory was later modified toward the last phased of the Cold War and came to be known as complex interdependence. The thrust of complex interdependence was that conflict and war between countries became highly improbable if they were enmeshed and intertwined in commerce and trade. Conflict then became a high stakes game which countries enmeshed in the complex interdependence paradigm. This has been made poignant and salient by the contemporary phase of globalization.
The questions that nagged my mind at the KC Residency were: Would complex interdependence paradigm be applicable in the subcontinent? Would having McDonalds restaurants across the state of Jammu and Kashmir , India and Pakistan be the antidote to conflict between India and Pakistan? How could complex interdependence be made real in the subcontinent?
There is no doubt in my mind about the consequences of complex interdependence in the subcontinent. If the two historical antagonists-India and Pakistan- enter into a relation of complex interdependence, the entire subcontinent would be peaceful and prosperous. Yes, there will be conflicts but they would fall in the domain of low politics subject and amenable to resolution through negotiation and discussion. This has precedents especially in the form of the European Union where functionalism and spill over was taken recourse to. Both meant tying the respective economies of historical enemies and antagonists into the framework of commerce and trade. Or, in other words, complex interdependence. The results of this are for all to see. Western Europe, once defined by intra-European conflict and an orgy of killing and war is now a zone of peace and co-operation.(The EU’s contemporary travails and problems are a different matter altogether).
Trade and commerce sublimate negative energies and make people develop a stake in the society, polity and the economy. These, in combination (even though economists are divided over this), lead to economic growth and development- something that the peoples of the subcontinent badly need. If hostile Europeans defined by rivalry and animus towards each other could be reconciled to each other through the magic of complex interdependence, the probability of the same happening in the subcontinent is high. Complex interdependence can potentially obviate the conflict and animus that has held India and Pakistan in thrall.
The question then is how to make complex interdependence real in the subcontinent? This is no rocket science. The structural conditions that obtain in the world of today make the possibility of complex interdependence in the subcontinent eminently possible. The contemporary world is defined by an inexorable logic of globalization and is marked by expanded trade, commerce and crisscrossing capital flows. All that needs to be done is to open up to and embrace this world. India has already done so but Pakistan’s approach and orientation is wanting. If Pakistan opens up and then develops trade and commercial complementarities with India, this can redound positively to it and then the subcontinent can reap the dividends from trade and commerce. The results will be salubrious. The peoples of the subcontinent will benefit and their aspirations met. Intrastate conflict between India and Pakistan will be given short shrift and the shadow of conflict and war will not loom over these countries. This will, instead of being a zero sum game be a positive sum one where all will benefit.
What could bring about this scenario is astute and sagacious statecraft and diplomacy that looks beyond the zero sum frameworks that the two countries are locked in. It would also mean aligning the subcontinent with the trend and theme of the times. It would take a conceptual shift. And, it would, given the trend and forces of the times, sooner or later happen. However, wisdom dictates that the tea leaves be read and then vigorous action taken to enmesh the two countries in a framework of trade, commerce or complex interdependence. This would save precious lives and material and would allow the redirection of energies towards salubrious ends. It is about time then that powers that be in the subcontinent recognize the need and the trend and not go against it. Let the golden arches of McDonalds cast their glow on the dark corners and recesses in India, Pakistan and the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
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