India's Electoral Verdict and Implications for Muslims and the Dispute over Kashmir

The humungous and back breaking exercise of conducting elections in the world’s largest democracy is over along both expected and unexpected lines: the election of the UPA conglomerate to the citadels of power in India. This paradox cannot be explained away by either the clichéd and hackneyed, ‘anti –incumbency’ factor nor by conventional explanations. As far as the eye can see, it would appear that the Indian electorate has voted for stability. The implication being that stability can only be accorded by either the Congress party and its allies. This may be construed as a vote for secularism or whatever secularism means in India or in the Indian context. This means that India may be reverting to a kind of polity where the instability that characterized it in the late eighties and nineties may be over and that some kind of modus vivendi between the regional parties and the Congress party may be in the offing.(On the level of political economy , it(electoral victory) means or is a clear cut victory for a more liberal economy where the thrust may be on third generation economic reforms).Now the question is what would this mean for India’s largest minority-Muslims- and the dispute over Kashmir? (The formers’- hitherto ,held to be a vote bank -need to establish or include themselves in the power structure has never been more exigent and the latters’ meandering toward an ill defined endgame needs begs a solution that is a win- win proposition for all sides or parties). Given that the vote appears to be for a stable polity and India touts itself as a diverse country with a large chunk of its population as Muslim, it becomes imperative for policy makers and powers that be in the current Indian political firmament to review its approach toward Muslims if for nothing but stability. Or more specifically reach out to Muslims and include them in both the political and power structure as genuine and equal partners.(Cynical vote bank politics and the politics of tokenism and posturing has, I daresay contributed to the alienation of Muslims in India continuation of this approach is a sure shot guarantee or recipe for wider and broader alienation..).One way of bringing this to fruition is to accord Muslims voice in the decision making processes and perhaps revisit the democracy theme in India and render it into a participatory democracy .Admittedly a task that is humungous, it would nonetheless contribute to ameliorating the Muslim condition in India. Now let me dwell on the theme of the dispute over Kashmir and the implications of the putative Congress led coalition’s victory and government formation. It appears that the so called peace process got caught in the prelude to elections in India and as a status quo power, India holding the ace or trump cards, could afford to be complacent given the Kafkaesque dramas or odysseys Pakistan has gotten itself into. This is a dangerous sign or portent. Why? It, returning to a theme in my columns, implies the triumph of power politics over genuine conflict resolution. So what can or should be done? I would posit that the hiatus induced by the elections in India be overcome and a genuine effort to resolve the conflict be employed or taken recourse to. This would or appears to be possible or in the realm of possibility given the mandate given by the people to the putative government. The specific contours of the policy could be the inverse of obverse of what appears to the current one: watch with perhaps unconcealed glee over Pakistan’s slide or degeneracy into a an almost failed state , at one level, and gloat over the disarray of the politics of separatism in Kashmir , induced by the attritive capabilities of the Indian state.Now returning to my favorite subject or theme,history, I would posit that these are the ingredients of either prolonging a conflict situation or , counterintuitively, watch over the slide of latent conflict into over conflict.(History is testament to this..).The question now is what can be done to, at one level , achieve plenitude and closure to the dispute over Kashmir and at another level bring the ‘peace dividend’ to South Asia , at large. No easy answers lend themselves. However, in the interests of peace and amity in the region, it may fall on the regions’ natural hegemon, India to reach out to Pakistan and ameliorate its strategic and conceptual concerns and follow it up by reaching out sincerely to a cross section of political and public spectrum in Kashmir. This may be buttressed by a new conflict resolution paradigm instead of the run of the mill kind: play political games or mere posturing to either facilitate or bring about the intervention of the United States or render it aloof from South Asian politics. The conflict resolution model or paradigm I have in mind is the European Union paradigm where the policy of gradualism among other things brought to rest or closure the kind of conflicts that bore an eerie parallel with the dispute over Kashmir. The auguries are present. Let us all make haste slowly and work toward a resolution that redounds to the benefit of all parties.