Is Imran Khan the Answer to Pakistan’s Problems?

It is now widely held and believed that Imran Khan-the celebrity cricketer turned politician- is the answer to Pakistan’s problems and travails. The charismatic and handsome Khan is making the right noises about corruption and other evils that bedevil Pakistan and how his party-the Tehreek e Insaaf- is going to remedy these. Of particular interest and note is his ‘born again’ Muslim and Islamic self and his anti American stance.(This is not a case of labeling. Imran Khan’s rants and ravings about American Foreign policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan are testimony to this). The support that Imran is eliciting and drawing from the masses of Pakistan is leading many to believe that he may become the president of Pakistan. This may transpire and the charismatic cricket may even enjoy the support of the real movers and shakers of Pakistan’s politics: the army and the intelligence agencies or the patrimonial elite of Pakistan.

 

This raises an interesting set of questions: Would Imran Khan’s occupying the highest office of Pakistan lead to real, substantive and enduring change? Will it reorient Pakistan’s Foreign policy choices and stances? Will it lead to structural change that breaks the extant power structure of Pakistan and leads to real democratization of the country? Or bleakly, will his candidature be mere shuffling of the cards with real power continuing to be exercised by the praetorian elite? Or , in other words, will it be plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose?

 

It could perhaps be safely posited that Pakistan’s real and nagging problem or set of problems accrues from its ideational premise , the path dependence of the institutions that accrue from this and the attendant political decay. Reversing this or breaking this vicious pattern is not only a Sisyphean endeavor amenable to change by prudent leadership but an almost impossible exercise. This is because the institutional superstructure that accrues from the nature of Pakistan’s founding premise is so ensconced and deeply set that it has enveloped Pakistan’s society in its tentacles. Breaking this would entail both a top down and bottoms up revolution which rents asunder contemporary Pakistan and creates a new, salubrious entity from it.  This revolution would naturally and inevitably entail blood both on the streets and the power corridors of Pakistan. The handsome Khan’s leadership skills and ability will come to naught. It is then silly to believe that his candidature will lead to any substantial and real change. What might then happen?

 

The praetorian elite of Pakistan-the army and intelligence agencies will tap in to the support that Imran Khan is eliciting and instrumentalize him. That is , it will accord him full support and even help him in becoming the president of Pakistan and then use him for their own agenda(s). This agenda is the same old hackneyed one that accrues from the ideational premise of Pakistan. Its components are hostility toward India, crystallizing Pakistan into an Islamic state, using its nukes as protective cover to pursue its regional and other agendas. The charismatic Khan may cut a deal with the Establishment with the hope that he may be able to steer Pakistan into a salubrious direction and may even intend to double deal the army. This, however, will cost him his life and will be the end of his Party. This, in all, likelihood will not happen. Imran Khan will cut a deal with the army and eke out some room for maneuver for himself. In the final analysis and putting a positive spin on events, this means that Imran Khan will morph into a populist authoritarian figure –the benign variety.

 

This will mean a full circle for Pakistan. Nothing will have changed. There may be cosmetic changes in the ostensible and visible power structure of Pakistan, the employment of anti corruption bureaus and other inconsequential and trivial changes. The nub of the problem-the ideational premise of Pakistan and the attendant institutional super and sub structure-will remain. The hopes of Pakistanis will be dashed and Pakistan will continue to muddle along. The United States will welcome ‘civilian rule’ in Pakistan and hope for a review of Pakistan’s foreign policy posture. This will not be forthcoming. Imran Khan will make conciliatory noises in order to maintain the aid flows but the underlying dynamic will not have changed. All in all then the country will remain mired in self created problems and will continue to be a threat to global security. The phrase ,’ plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose’ will continue to have a resonance. Pakistan will continue to trod on the well worn path. And this will happen whether Imran Khan will come to power or not. So let not hopes be raised and let any policy towards Pakistan be premised and shaped by rather prosaic and hum drum considerations. This is the sad and prosaic reality of the ‘land of the pure.