The Non Aligned Movement, Iran and the Arab Spring: Implications of the Iranian President's Invite to Mohammad Morsi

The Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmedinajad, has invited the Mohammad Morsi, the democratically elected president of Egypt to Iran. The ostensible rationale /premise of the invite is to attend the ‘Non Aligned’ movement’s meet in Iran. However, the real reasons may be Iran’s attempt to reach out to Egypt and tap into the changing balance of power in the Arab Muslim world. Iran had snapped its tied with Egypt after Anwar Sadat’s opening up to Israel in the late seventies. It bears mention here that the Non Aligned movement, pioneered by the troika of Nehru, Nasser and Kwame Nkruma of Ghana, was incubated in the milieu of decolonization and the Cold War. Newly independent nations emerging out of the colonial yoke tried to assert their independence and attempted to maintain distance from the major power blocs. In the final analysis, the Non Aligned movement was more or less a rhetorical device.  It was an ineffective, irrelevant and a bombastic talk shop. So what explains the Iranian President’s invite to Mohammad Morsi?

The invite can be put into perspective by the changing balance of power and forces that the Arab Spring has brought forth in the Arab Muslim world. This change has brought Islamists of various hues and colorations into power, aligning state society relations and in the process impacting the alliance equations and dynamics of the region. Iran, more or less, an outlier in the region on account of its Persian origins and the massive following of Shi’ism by its Iranians appears to be sensing that the changed power dynamics and equations may redound to its favor. Given that it is a powerful nation with aspirations of regional hegemony, Iran may want to reach out to Islamists and assert its leadership role in the region.  While this may or may not be a legitimate aspiration, it has huge implications for the politics of the region. Iran may be aiming for a force multiplier that enables it to both project its power and influence and change the political equations of the Arab Muslim world. This will naturally have implications on its alleged nuclear program , the Palestinian Israeli dispute and the regions alliance systems with the United States. It may not even be a stretch to posit maturation and crystallization of even a de facto alliance between Iran and Islamists of the region may spark a clash of civilizations.

The question is: Is the alliance possible? Will it have critical mass? Will it lead to a more peaceful Middle East and Arab Muslim world? Or will it be a region at odds with the world? What are the alternatives?

The alliance is possible. However, it is more likely to be a tactical than a durable and a bonding one. This is because of the historical, deep and pervasive sunn-shi’te schism that defines the Muslim world. Philosophically and theosophically at odds with each other, the Sunni and the Shiite world cannot be in the same bed together.  Second, the centre of gravity of Islam is and will continue to be Saudi Arabia given its custodianship of Islam’s holiest places-the Ka’aba and Medina. Egypt may be populous and large but this matters little when it comes to sacrality. Here, Saudi Arabia holds the trump cards. The putative or potential alliance will then be ephemeral and transient.

Hypothetically speaking, even if it does come to pass, the potential alliance between Islamists and Iran will not augur well for a peaceful region. This is because, it may induce hubris amongst the alliance partners and this may lead them to misadventures- a war against Israel, for instance, or Iran cocking a snook at the international community over its alleged nuclear program. This will , in turn, throw a spanner into the works and lead to hostile blocs glowering at each other. The tension this will create may lead to unfortunate accidents even sparking war in the region.

How can this scenario be pre empted? Prudence, wisdom and statesmanship should be the by words in dealing with this situation/scenario. In this schema, it is perhaps incumbent on the United States to reach out to both the Islamists and Iran. In other words, it is diplomacy that should be taken recourse to. The former should be assuaged that the United States is not hostile toward Islam and will respect a democratic, plural and tolerant Middle East and the latter should be offered security guarantees in exchange of giving up its nuclear program. The Islamists, on their part, should reciprocate and reassure the United States that they will not take recourse to aggression of any sorts and that they would attempt a synthesis of modernity and Islam. The peace process between the Palestinians and Israeli’s should become a critical benchmark for these confidence building measures. The peace process should be revived and a just solution arrived at.

 It is then sagacious diplomacy that could bring the region to equilibrium point. Hasty and impulsive overtures and moves by any party could potentially lead to a denouement that redounds negatively to all.  Peace within the region and without warrants and dictates that prudence and wisdom dictate the drift and tenor of equations in the Arab Muslim world; not posturing or playing hardball. The Arab Muslim world is going through a historical transition of tremendous import. Let not politics or geo political maneuvering stop this in its tracks.