Pentagon chief, Chuck Hagel, has stated that the interim deal with deal to roll back its nuclear program was a risk worth taking but that Western diplomacy must not be misinterpreted. He added that, ‘diplomacy cannot operate in a vacuum and that the Pentagon will not make any adjustments to its military forces in the region or to its military planning as a result of its interim agreement with Iran. A senior defence official, in support of Hagel’s assertions, said that ‘Hagel had sent a message of solidarity to the Gulf allies and that ‘any sort of mythology of American retreat was wrong headed’.
Both Hagel’s and the defence official’s remarks are meant as reassurance to the jittery allies of the United States in the wake of the deal with Iran over scaling back its nuclear ambition. The fear, for the mini Gulf statelets and Saudi Arabia is that this deal may signal the drawdown of US forces from the region and leave them vulnerable to Iranian hegemony. This could potentially have a ripple effect on nuclear proliferation in the region, impact its security structures and the end of extended deterrence in the region. In turn, this development could alter the balance of power in the region in Iran’s or Shi’ite favour.
Some analysts have also taken the US-Iran deal to mean and imply the retreat and waning of US hegemony as a reaction to putative developments in the global system polarity and the attendant decline of American power. Hagel has debunked all the myths and rightly so.
American power, especially in the domain of hard power , remains pre-eminent and paramount. Yes: its prestige and soft power may have taken a bit of a hit after the second Gulf War ,the war in Afghanistan and the 2008 economic crisis but the fact remains that America is the uncontested hegemon of the world. The reserves of power it has and holds have no real challengers. The China bogey , used at times, to suggest either as an alternative to American power or as a competitor is a bit of a myth. Yes: China has made stupendous strides-economically and militarily- over the years but it is a stretch to believe that the country can match the United States either in terms of capability or influence as far as the eye can see. American hegemony and provision of security for the world has been good and salutary. Consider the Middle East. Without the American security umbrella, the region would have been in anarchy and potentially a war zone with constituent states of the region at each others’ throats. Or consider South Asia. American interventions or to use a more politically correct term, interest, may have kept peace in the region to a large extent. Similarly, American security guarantees to its allies in Southeast Asia have kept peace in this region too. In Western Europe, it is well known how peace was maintained and how the European Union was incubated and formed under the American security umbrella.
This peacekeeping( a term and practice usually associated with the United Nations but whose performance in this domain has been found wanting) role of the US is underwritten by American power, influence and capability. And , it is not in decline. American primacy is as strong as ever and no country or power can really supplant it.
Now consider Chuck Hagel’s remarks and the entente between Iran and the United States. The ‘deal’ between the two countries is a victory for diplomacy over war. In this sense, it reflects prudent and sagacious statecraft. War, hich means bad politics, has been shunted aside in favour of a diplomatic resolution of Iran’s vexing nuclear ambition. This has been made possible by the backdrop of America’s hard power combined with diplomatic overtures. Hagel’s remarks that diplomacy does not operate in a vacuum becomes pertinent here. A US troop drawdown from the region is not part of the deal. If this were the case, it would be a coup for Iran for who the field would then be open for pursuing its long held dreams of Persian and Shi’ite hegemony of the region. All in all then, the interim agreement while dealing with the nuclear issue maintains the balance of power in the region with the United States holding the balance.
This naturally maintains the security situation and condition of the Gulf region; prevents nuclear proliferation; assuages the worries of America’s Gulf partners and maintains peace and stability in the region. Status quo ante is maintained and preserved but with the new development of roping or drawing in Iran towards normal politics. This is sanguine and , to repeat, a tribute to diplomacy. Not only has war been averted but also the perils and dangers of nuclear proliferation and all that this would entail in the region thwarted. How this could be an indication of American decline and the attendant drawdown of its forces in the region is rather inexplicable.
The United States continues to and will be the world’s pre-eminent and paramount power. This condition will obtain and endure for as far as the eye can see. American power has underwritten global peace and development and has been , by and large , benign. The prudent option for other states and countries may be not to confront the United States but cooperate with it for the sake of a more benign and peaceful world order. This may be the lesson of the Iran-US deal. All the rest is pure blarney.
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