Sunday, September 16, 2012

India-Pakistan Rapprochement: Strategic Options for Kashmir's Political Class


Ambassador Sherry Rehman of Pakistan has averred that Pakistan needs ‘strategic space’ , sympathy and not calls to do more. She made these assertions at a 50 member caucus in the United States House of Representatives. She, according the Dawn newspaper, said that ‘there was a clear strategic shift in Pakistan’s calculus in the region with proactive diplomatic engagement on both sides of the border as well as with all other regional countries’. Ambassador Rehman also emphasized Pakistan’s reorientation towards economic opportunities in the region and attempts to maximize the country’s trade and investment opportunities focus on stability in the region.

 

These assertions and statements come in the wake of the Indian Foreign Minister, S.M Krishna’s visit to Pakistan, the successful conclusion of the same and the relaxation of visa and investment rules. Concomitantly, Pakistan’s domestic politics is also undergoing a bit of a churn. Imran Khan-the celebrity cricketer turned politician- is pulling and drawing crowds and he may occupy Pakistan’s highest office in due course of time, shunting and marginalizing the well known traditional political players.(Imran  at this point in time , however, is not doing well in polls). The logical inference to draw from these developments and statements is that the Pakistani state is undergoing a review. Instead of being a ‘spoiler state’ in the region and beyond, the country appears to be embarking on a bold and beautiful path-that of peace, prosperity, positive engagement and development. The approach adopted by Pakistan is a cautious and gradualist one. It is not easy to wind or roll back ideologies and institutions that have become entrenched and path dependent over time.

 

All there are positive developments and bode well for peace of the subcontinent and perhaps even the world at large. Pakistan, at peace with itself and the world, can only be a positive and a good thing. However, the question is where this leave does Kashmir and the Kashmiris-the real sticking point and bone of contention between the two nuclear armed neighbors? Should Kashmiris accept the unfurling amity, cordial and normal relations between India and Pakistan? Should they continue to resist? Or should there be a realignment of the strategy and bring the strategy in like with regional and global political developments? What implications would this realignment have on both mainstream and separatist politics?

 

The natural and logical consequence of improved relations and bonhomie between India on Kashmir is that the dispute over Kashmir will gradually whittle away as the core sticking point between the two countries. This is both a good and a bad development. Good because it potentially means the resolution of a complex dispute that has defied resolution for six decades or so. And it accords both countries to focus on more pressing and urgent concerns and priorities. It is bad because core grouse of Kashmiris-the ability to decide for themselves their future-remains unaddressed. This is potentially alarming because this means that the psychological dimension of the dispute remains and Kashmiris , by omission, cannot obtain closure. This , in turn means, that Kashmir will remain on the boil and can potentially erupt again. The question is how can this possibility and scenario be pre empted?

 

There are no easy answers to this question. However, the watch word should be prudence by/on part of all stakeholders to the dispute- Kashmiris, India and Pakistan. What does this mean specifically? This has different implications for each stakeholder. For India, this means reaching out to Kashmiris in an idiom informed by sincerity and magnanimity in accord with its emerging power status. For Pakistan, it means getting rid of the ideological baggage that informs its foreign policy. This has two prongs: first, forging a new consensus over the nature of Pakistan amongst its elite and, second, educating its society about the nature of the naya(new) Pakistan and the perils of continuing on the same ,old path. Most important, and for the most pivotal and significant stakeholder- Kashmiris- prudence means review and introspection and eking out room and space for maneuver in the new or the emerging political equations. This has implications for both the mainstream and separatist spectrum of Kashmir’s politics. The essence of this should be to eke out honorable space for Kashmir and Kashmiri’s in the interstices of the emerging configurations.

 

This rather broad and vague prescription may mean forging a consensus over the political future of Kashmir and crafting a strategy that factors in the new developments and the thrust of international politics. This could then be presented to both powers that be in India and Pakistan for serious consideration. This may satisfy Kashmiris’ need for inclusion in the rapprochement between India and Pakistan and above all accord them voice in an issue that has a direct bearing on their future. It is to this that the political leadership of Kashmir-mainstream and separatist-should devote themselves to. Protesting against the rapprochement, or staying silent over it because of structural factors, or just latching onto it is not helpful to either Kashmir or the politics of the subcontinent. Proactive politics is the need of hour. It is about time that all sections and strata of Kashmir’s politics gird their loins and focus their energies on endeavors that have a chance of success.

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