Should Turkey Attack Syria?

Should Turkey Attack Syria?

Turkey’s raised its pitch against Syria after a Turkish fighter jet allegedly on a training mission was shot down by the Syrian army. The backdrop to this is the butchery carried out by the Assad regime, the waning of the Arab Spring and the muted calls for military intervention against Syria in the West. Turkish posturing and threats of invasion are a bit of a counter intuitive denouement of the Turkish approach toward its Arab neighbors. This ‘Look East’ policy of Turkey was aimed at reversing the hostility and bad blood that prevailed between the Turks and the Arabs. It was premised on a soft power approach. That is to say, this strategy and approach called for demonstrating the Turkish model- incorporation and synthesis of Islam and liberalism- to the Arab world, rebuilding ties and expanding Turkish influence in the Arab Middle East. Turkey, in this schema, reached out to the Arabs, tried to inject itself in the Palestinian Israeli dispute and Syria was an important prong in this. This has now been given short shrift. There is now hostility between Turkey and Syria. The question is: should Turkey attack Syria?

The answer is yes. Why? Turkey maintained a strange silence after the eruption of the Arab Spring. While rhetorical support for the Arab Spring was forthcoming from Turkey, substantive support was not. Turkey missed an opportunity to weigh in , inject and perhaps serve as a model for the denouement of the Arab Spring. Its gradualist approach toward the Arabs could and should been accorded momentum after the eruption of the Arab world. This is because the Arab Spring was/ is an inchoate movement which needed guidance and support. And Turkey was best positioned to do so given that it has, in some senses, over the past few years, rather successfully integrated liberalism, its concomitant democracy and Islam. This synthesis could have potentially served as a beacon and an example for Arabs to emulate. Turkey’s international orientation and relations could also have been a template for Arab Muslims to follow.  This was not to happen. The Arab Spring followed its own momentum and is now in disarray. However, all is not lost.

Turkey and review and revise its strategy and interject itself into the Arab Middle East with vigor. This time, however, given the changed circumstances, Turkey could do well by adopting a hard power approach/strategy. Specifically, it means attacking Syria. This could be the biggest favor that Turks could do the Arabs. By deposing an odious regime and catalyzing democracy in Syria would not only ease the suffering of Syrians but also help in catalyzing democracy in Syria. This could, in turn, serve as a bellwether for broader democratization of the region. What would this do for Turkey?

Adopting a hard power strategy and injecting itself forcefully into the Arab Middle East would accord a leadership role to Turkey. It could also mean a regional hegemonic status for Turkey- a role that could potentially be supplanted by Iran if it acquires nukes. A regional hegemon that is liberal or has synthesized liberalism with Islam would be a boon for the entire region. Democratization would also not be viewed as a ‘foreign, western imperialistic implant’ but more or less an indigenous phenomenon. This could potentially have a ripple effect across the region. Besides these salubrious effects, it would allow Turkey to redirect its energies towards ends that are attainable and desirable. The reference here is to Turkey’s attempts to be part of the European Union. This Sisyphean endeavor has drained Turkey’s energies and deepened its ‘cleft country’ status. The European Union is , in the final analysis, a closed club or a fortress like entity. More importantly, it has been and is hostile to Muslims and Islam. As such Turkey’s attempts to be part of it will always come to naught. A regional hegemonic status and a comprehensive ‘Look East’ policy would release Turkey from the European gridlock. Pertinent to mention here is the fact that the European Union’s current travails testify to the resilience and durability of the nation state. And it is on the nation state paradigm than collapsing itself into a loose federation that Turkey should focus on.

The question now is how? Attacking Syria offers just this opportunity. And it is possible. Making noises about international law and conforming to it is not the way. International law has its uses but in the final analysis is meant for pansies and wimps, so to speak. In the final analysis, it is power that is the ultima ratio of international politics. And dictators like good cowards know this. International law merely helps dictators and odious regimes by prolonging there rule. The concept and notion of pre emptive strikes exists. There is a precedent for this.  Turkey should take recourse to this and vigorously attack Syria. Freedom, liberty and Islam and /or their synthesis is the need of the hour for the Arab Muslim worlds.  Let Turkey shake off its sloth and brace itself for this. Turkey owes this to the Arabs. The future is there for a picking.