Mumbai Blasts: A Sense of Deja Vu?

The serial bomb blasts in Mumbai-the financial capital of India and the erstwhile gateway to India -are ominous. These come in the wake of the foreign secretary level talks between India and Pakistan. Terrorism apparently had not figured much in the talks. The reflex of most denizens of India and in particular Mumbai would be to apportion blame on Pakistan or Pakistani inspired and supported proxies like the Lashkar e Toiba(Let) and their native supporters. However, it may be too soon to apportion blame onto the known terror groups. In the murky atmosphere that unfortunately defines both India and Pakistani politics; the real culprits may not be the usual suspects. However, speculating on the real culprits detracts from the real and the larger issues. The salient among which are , one , the relationship or the tenor of relationship between India and Pakistan, the relationship of the Muslim minority to the dominant Hindu majority and last but not the least Kashmir.

The clear cut and manifold agendas of the perpetrators appears to drive a wedge between the Muslim minority and the Hindu majority of the state, crystallize mutual antagonisms and suspicions between them and also widen the gulf between India and Pakistan. Sobriety thus demands that knee jerk responses should not be taken recourse to and a calm but firm attitude be held and then deal with the fallout accordingly. The broader set of issue and themes that the terror attacks raise are that terrorism is now to stay with the world and may even become a fixture, no security system is foolproof, and that there are entrenched elements in both Pakistan and India to whom a hint of peace and amity between the two traditional antagonists is anathema.

Coming to agenda number one, it would appear that the perpetrators are bound to be disappointed. India or the idea of India-pluralism, tolerance and secularism- and the concomitant-consolidation of Indian nationalism –are now so entrenched and woven into the fabric of India that even the most appalling and garish acts of depravity cannot bring about a communal conflagration and division of the country. Post 2008 Mumbai and Mumbai’s attitude and reaction to it is one example of this phenomenon. However, insofar agenda number two is concerned, it would appear that the perpetrators may be said to be successful. Regardless of the nature of the perpetrators, the finger of blame is most likely to fall on Pakistan. If it comes to light that the perpetrators were members of the Let, then there will be bottoms up pressure on the India polity and government to do something about it. The demands may take the form of demanding action along the lines of Operation Geromino and ask for the scalp of Let leaders who apparently are shielded by the Pakistani power structure. This will unfortunately be exploited by the India’s major opposition party who will paint the Congress led dispensation as weak and wobbly in the face of consistent and constant acts of terrorism by Pakistan or Pakistan inspired groups. While an operation like Geromino may be unlikely given that it may constitute and act of war on Pakistan and Pakistan, which while facing structural weaknesses, is no a pushover, the relations between the two countries will go on a down ward spiral. And this will manifest and get reflected in the Kashmir imbroglio where India as the status quo power will , more likely for domestic reasons mentioned in the piece, become obstructionist and unyielding. All in all a scenario laden with gloom and doom.

So what does prudence-the kind that defeats the agendas of the perpetrators- dictate at this hour? First, a calm and rational response is required in dealing with the immediate fallout of the attacks. Second, the Indian establishment should reach out to its Muslim minority and reassure them that they are a much appreciates and wanted part of the Indian nation. Measures-economic, political and social- should be taken to make them as part of project India. Last, and counter intuitively India should thank Pakistan for the condolences that it has sent and elicit a statement from the highest echelons in the Pakistan power structure that India and Pakistan will jointly work against terrorism.

Acting on these pointers and suggestions may be the antidote to this nefarious and cowardly act of terrorism. It will send a strong message to the perpetrators that come what may, the state will not act disproportionately to the gravest of provocations and that their nefarious agendas will be defeated. It will also validate and consolidate the idea of India wherein peoples of different communities have potentially an equal stake in the polity and the nation. A knee jerk , reflexive and a populist response, on the contrary will play right into the hands of the perpetrators. It is time that sobriety and rationality takes over atavism and irrational passion. Both India and Pakistan owe it to their citizens.