How Not to Lose Pakistan?

The United States’ threat to withhold a tranche of aid monies to Pakistan comes at a delicate moment: the downward spiral of bilateral relations. The backdrop to this is the assassination of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, the killing of Pakistani youth by an alleged CIA operative and other small things that have over time built up cumulatively. The US decision appears to stem from pique and appears to be aimed at punishing Pakistan or in the least the threat of punishment is implicit in it. Pakistan’s predictable reaction of threatening to stop cooperating with the United States in the border areas and looking to its ‘fair weather friend’, China is ominous and rife with negative consequences. The implication of the latter statement is the validation of the worst fears of the Pakistani establishment: the United States is an unreliable ally. And that of the former, Pakistan’s turn to China. (This, obiter dictum, from a macro perspective, in a curious twist validates the Clash of Civilizations theory)

The most salient question that should be nagging the minds of sober policy makers on both sides should be how to salvage the relationship. And set it onto a salubrious path. This is important for both the United States and Pakistan. The United States should not lose interest in Pakistan and think of abandoning it in the wake of Osama’s assassination. Osama’s end, even for one moment does not mean that the ‘war on terror’ is over. Osama, if anything, was a brand and Al Qaeda the franchise that latched onto failed states like Afghanistan to pursue its ends. The equity of this brand may be enduring and while the franchise may be weak, it is by no means dead. So the United States should not be complacent and smug about it and deem Pakistan’s utility to it as flagging.

The real prize in the ‘arc of instability’ is a stable, prosperous and democratic Pakistan and Afghanistan. The former on account of the nature of its conceptual underpinnings and convoluted trajectory is the, in the jargon of international relations, a pivotal state in the region. And its health, focus and orientation will determine the health of the latter, that is, Afghanistan. The United States should not lose sight of this. The only way to bring about a salubrious Pakistan at ease with itself and the world is to keep on engaging it. It is all about means and ends. That is to say, the nature , tone and tenor of engagement with Pakistan should not premised on mutual predation or the , you scratch my back while I scratch your, short term self defeating formulation. It should be the national interest of the United States to see a healthy Pakistan that can hold its own and stand up as a valued member in the comity of nations.

It is equally important for Pakistan to introspect deep and hard and review some of its policy postures and orientations. It may do well to disengage from Afghanistan and reach a modus vivendi with India over some kind of settlement over Kashmir. While it may not afford to completely or comprehensively disengage from Afghanistan for security reasons, it could opt for a minimal engagement and assist in stabilizing the country. This would far in the overall stability of the region and might even lead to a new security order in South Asia. It would among other things allow Pakistan to refocus its energies and direct them to areas where most needed: education, consolidation of its sovereignty and nationalism, health and other like such areas. Gradually, a focus on these areas or domains with assistance from the west, especially the United States, Pakistan may morph into a well functioning Muslim democratic state. It is by focusing on these salubrious ends mentioned here that Pakistan can not only become a confident entity but also reclaim the mantle of moral and political leadership in the Islamic worlds. And in the process correspond to the original vision of its founder.

In short, instead of mutual recrimination and an ungainly relationship, the whole tenor of the alliance between Pakistan and the United States should be revamped. The kind of revamp that is needed is one that disavows short termism and is premised on mutual respect, understanding and esteem. The stakes are too high to take recourse to rhetoric, threats and tit for tats of the sort we are witnessing. Not all is lost. Prudent statesmanship on both sides can set the relationship on an even keel and healthy trajectory. Both the United States and Pakistan owe this to the world.