To Egypt, With Love

The neo conservative –the ideology or worldview that the Bush Administration after the Sep 11 terror attacks heartily professed and espoused-assessment and analysis of the ills that plague the Arab Islamic world have a striking resonance in the protest movement gripping the very important state of Egypt. Briefly, neo conservatives attributed the ills of the region largely to the authoritarian nature of governance and the striking absence of democracy and freedom in much of the Middle East. And, perhaps more importantly and significantly, they held that freedom was the fundamental aspiration and longing of every human being or that it-the idea of freedom-was and is universal. Nothing more validates the neo con assessment, to repeat, at the risk of sounding tautological, than the rumblings of change or the protest movement directed against the power structure put in place by the ageing gerontocrat and autocrat, Hosni Mubarak and his power clique, and perhaps inspired by the bottoms up change in Tunisia. While it is too soon to call the protest movement a revolution, it is, given the cunning that Arab autocrats have held and clung to power in the Middle East and the strategic position that Egypt holds, incredibly difficult to prognosticate on the implications and significance of the movement on the power dynamic of the Arab Muslim Middle East. Having said this, the protest movement is, however, an ode to the idea that determines history: the idea of freedom and its concomitant democracy. The protest movements, originating in Tunisia, also point out to the ‘potential return of ‘siyasah’(politics)-hitherto monopolized by the autocrats and the dreaded mukhabaraat(intelligence services) in the region and more broadly, to borrow a phrase,’ the return of history’ in the region.

The protest movement may unfortunately die, on account of fatigue and the remarkable staying power of established power structures in Egypt, who may take recourse to cosmetic change to keep their grip on power. However, it, on the positive side inaugurates the idea of freedom and democracy in the Arab Muslim world and the deep yearning for it by the ‘hoi polloi’, in the process not only validating the idea of either as universal but also discrediting the bleak image and picture painted by the Orientalists of the Arab Muslim world as being gripped by past notions of glory and stuck in that. The inference that the Orientalist’s and their neo Orientalist scribblers want us to draw is that authoritarianism is inherent to the Arab Muslim world, the ‘Arab street’ is inert, and dances to the tune of power thereby deflecting anger onto Israel, and that given the reactionary attitude and torpor induced by the loss of imperium, that has gripped the collective unconscious of the Arab Muslim world, the only idiom that the Arab Muslim world can engage with the world is terrorism- a point of view , unfortunately lent credence by the sordid saga of September 11. Now this notion stands discredited as the desire and yearning for freedom by the Arab street is on vivid and eloquent display. This may be the most significant message that is sent out or relayed by the protests.

Now after having laid out the ‘abstracts’, I would venture on the domain of amateur punditry by first touching on the potential fallout of the protests and then offering or attempting to offer some prescriptions for the policy making elite of the power that matters and will continue to do so for the indefinite future and whose bearing and orientation toward the protests will have enduring significance: the United States. It stands to reason, to repeat myself, that the staying power of the Egyptian regime is immense and that while the protests may rattle it and the power structure put in place, we may not witness long term and lasting change in Egypt. The only fallout or significant fallout that I see panning out is a bit of the ‘shuffling of cards’ to impart an illusion of change to the regime and its politics. This may take the form of changing electoral rules of conduct and allowing hitherto marginalized and excluded political forces and giving them a wee bit of voice.(El Baradei and his cohort and perhaps the more moderate wing of the Islamic Brotherhood spring to mind here).Some economic changes –tinkering with subsidies and inflation- that take care of the prosaic and mundane needs of the people may also be taken recourse to. Beyond this I see no significant change to the tenor, style and method of politics in Egypt. Having said this, it would be naïve to not see the protests as harbinger of real change in the future. A crack in the power edifice has appeared , the door for political and then economic change is ajar and it would be a travesty if this is not further exploited. This is where the role and orientation of the wounded hegemon, the United States, becomes pertinent. It would be prudent for the United States to adopt a ‘wait and watch’ approach, review its traditional assumptions about the Arab Middle East, and then carefully and delicately encourage forces of change in the region. The reviewed approach may have tangential (but much needed) impact on US diplomacy and the nature of its engagement with the Arab Muslim world. Hitherto held in thrall by the needs of the Cold War and flawed representation of both Islam and the Arabs, the United States, it could be fairly said, has not really figured out the Arab Islamic world and much of its foreign policy rested on flawed constructs. These constructs-lent salience and validated on the Arab Muslim side, by the regimes and mullah’s usurping the power of representation- have, I daresay ,contributed to much bad blood between the United States and the Arab Muslim world.(Sep 11 was but one ghastly and gory reminder of this bad blood). A prudent, careful and farsighted approach toward the Middle East may thus have ramifications and implications for both world order and peace. Much, depends on the United States. We all hope and pray that the wounded hegemon stays engaged, sees the protests as a cry for change, rise to the occasion and stay true to its creed. This , in the final analysis is what we all expect from the United States and world peace and order may ultimately depend upon it.